Looking for probability calculations for nuclear accidents, I stumbled upon these – made post Fukushima. The calculations are based on 19 nuclear incidences of various INES levels over 59 years and assumes a poisson distribution of events. Detailed explanations are given in the site itself.


Note that the above are already ‘wrong’ to the extent that we have had 4 INES 7 accidents in 25 years, or at least 2 such accidents (if we call all three related Fukushima events as 1 accident) in the last 25 years. So, the above can at best be taken as a conservative and a minimum event estimates.

Meanwhile, “The Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd has ruled out the probability of the calamitous events at the quake and tsunami-ravaged Fukushima nuclear power plant getting replicated” (ref).

For me, the question no longer is “Should India go nuclear?” This seems the right time to ask” Can the world afford to go nuclear?”

Article lifted from I witness of Arati Chokshi, where she blogs about nuclear and other things.